Holybluefish
0xe782b705411ebd7b7edb4299422b788c5eb735c2
- Realised P&L
- $121.65
- Volume
- $19.9k
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $52.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.123 | 0.113 | $36.59 | −$3.41 |
| Will the Indiana Pacers be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.041 | $8.44 | −$1.56 |
| Will the Washington Wizards be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.031 | $7.75 | −$2.25 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.203 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.56 |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$158.30at 0.331Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
- +$77.90at 0.180Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$52.23at 0.631Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
- +$42.40at 0.176Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?
- +$26.00at 0.420Clippers vs. Spurs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 23:21 | Will the Washington Wizards be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? | BUY | 0.04 | $10.00 |
| 08-25 23:20 | Will the Indiana Pacers be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? | BUY | 0.0479999955 | $10.00 |
| 07-24 15:45 | Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.1229999969 | $40.00 |
| 05-02 00:37 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.203 | $10.56 |
| 05-02 00:32 | Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.60 |
| 05-01 16:22 | Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | SELL | 0.7152445887 | $165.22 |
| 05-01 16:17 | Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.0169999966 | $5.00 |
| 05-01 16:14 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.088 | $26.40 |
| 04-05 21:58 | Wizards vs. Nets | SELL | 0.08 | $1.19 |
| 04-05 21:55 | Wizards vs. Nets | BUY | 0.3299999591 | $4.80 |
| 04-04 21:29 | Spurs vs. Nuggets | SELL | 0.32 | $9.28 |
| 04-04 21:27 | Spurs vs. Nuggets | BUY | 0.18 | $5.13 |
| 04-02 01:39 | Bucks vs. Rockets | SELL | 0.041 | $1.02 |
| 04-02 01:17 | Kings vs. Raptors | SELL | 0.31 | $9.44 |
| 04-02 00:56 | Kings vs. Raptors | BUY | 0.16 | $4.75 |