CapiToshka
0xe77bc91efd5412dacaafcf2aabfc1607d98290dd
- Realised P&L
- $-89.31
- Volume
- $399.5k
- Markets traded
- 436
- Open portfolio
- $144.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded436
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on October 10? · No | 0.999 | 0.995 | $144.42 | −$0.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$109.63at 0.791Will FC Annecy win on 2026-04-24?
- +$17.48at 0.843Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-03?
- +$16.22at 0.951Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?
- +$8.17at 0.929Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-02?
- +$5.56at 0.900William & Mary Tribe vs. Duquesne Dukes
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 08:44 | Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on October 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $145.00 |
| 10-03 21:49 | Old Dominion vs. Georgia State | BUY | 0.999 | $64.93 |
| 09-27 19:21 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $145.00 |
| 09-21 07:34 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.999 | $66.89 |
| 09-21 07:31 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.9974190735 | $70.00 |
| 09-16 20:19 | Will M8 Music Tracker be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $42.93 |
| 09-16 20:16 | Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on September 17? | BUY | 0.999 | $97.61 |
| 09-13 01:09 | Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-09-12? | SELL | 0.999 | $143.86 |
| 09-08 16:20 | Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on September 9? | BUY | 0.9983067303 | $144.00 |
| 09-02 20:55 | Athletics vs. Texas Rangers | BUY | 0.9910398026 | $144.00 |
| 08-29 09:14 | Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on August 30? | BUY | 0.9983018815 | $143.00 |
| 08-27 08:42 | Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on August 28? | BUY | 0.9981798827 | $143.00 |
| 08-24 04:55 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 25? | BUY | 0.999 | $143.00 |
| 08-18 21:30 | Will the price of XRP be between $0.50 and $0.60 on August 21? | BUY | 0.998 | $43.00 |
| 08-18 21:29 | Will the price of XRP be less than $0.50 on August 21? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |