Markhor256
0xe766a1a78a80171ff0a3725e361517370f2995f0
- Realised P&L
- $-3.13
- Volume
- $124.4k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $8.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31? · No | 0.977 | 0.963 | $8.27 | −$0.12 |
| Will PLC win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.30at 0.960Jones-Aspinall date announced before February?
- +$0.21at 0.950Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on November 13?
- +$0.20at 0.950Will the Virginia Governor election have the largest Democratic margin of victory?
- +$0.11at 0.988Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.06at 0.962MetaMask airdrop in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 01:13 | Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31? | BUY | 0.9769999993 | $8.39 |
| 07-28 08:26 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $3.12 |
| 06-01 10:39 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.98799994 | $4.41 |
| 06-01 09:45 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.98799994 | $4.41 |
| 06-01 09:44 | Chirayu Rana divorced? | SELL | 0.989 | $12.06 |
| 05-19 09:22 | Chirayu Rana divorced? | BUY | 0.9839999934 | $12.00 |
| 04-02 10:50 | Will PLC win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? | BUY | 0.05 | $4.10 |
| 04-02 10:49 | Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026? | SELL | 0.9415281385 | $4.35 |
| 03-14 11:56 | Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026? | BUY | 0.931999987 | $4.31 |
| 03-14 11:55 | Maduro exiled to Qatar by March 31? | SELL | 0.994 | $4.31 |
| 02-25 07:36 | Maduro exiled to Qatar by March 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $4.31 |
| 02-25 07:35 | Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31? | SELL | 0.991 | $4.31 |
| 01-10 03:24 | Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31? | BUY | 0.9909999995 | $4.32 |
| 12-03 03:31 | Lee Jae-myung impeached in 2025? | BUY | 0.995 | $4.29 |
| 11-25 07:45 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of November 24 above $120? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.25 |