PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

asterley

0xe762c62c0cd669fe9f6c7ac08be8e2700418064b

Realised P&L
$647.01
Volume
$442.8k
Markets traded
950
Open portfolio
$7.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded950
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration18.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration26.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · No0.8070.885$1.8k+$157.47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · No0.7430.775$963.17+$39.79
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? · Yes0.4950.555$361.69+$38.88
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? · No0.4170.430$240.80+$7.00
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4930.545$220.18+$20.82
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5720.565$191.94$2.57
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.4440.455$180.12+$4.24
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1720.190$165.36+$15.32
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.4830.445$141.53$12.08
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.2870.247$107.18$17.26
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2160.210$106.71$2.98
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? · No0.4950.745$106.42+$35.71
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? · No0.9300.940$98.69+$1.05
Iran full airspace closure by August 15? · No0.6760.895$93.97+$23.02
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? · No0.5070.265$89.40$81.67

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-03 05:07Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?BUY0.44$30.80
08-03 00:11Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?SELL0.74$0.14
08-02 22:05Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?SELL0.79$47.24
08-02 22:05Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?BUY0.43$90.30
08-02 22:05Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?BUY0.43$90.30
08-02 21:51Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?BUY0.2947142857$10.31
08-02 21:28US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.49$8.57
08-02 21:03Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?BUY0.62$21.70
08-02 21:02Will Trump and Putin not meet?BUY0.23$24.15
08-02 20:38Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?BUY0.024$5.04
08-02 18:59US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.45$7.88
08-02 18:44US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?BUY0.44$30.62
08-02 18:21Will Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31?BUY0.2919214286$20.43
08-02 15:06Will FK Krasnodar win on 2026-08-02?BUY0.71$7.55
08-02 09:17Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?SELL0.14$2.33