repablw
0xe70a91929ec857656b94a0019ad117b17a9fe307
- Realised P&L
- $-39.32
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $148.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nico Estévez win 2026 MLS Coach of the Year? · No | 0.990 | 0.987 | $49.61 | −$0.18 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.982 | 0.970 | $49.36 | −$0.64 |
| Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027? · No | 0.975 | 0.974 | $49.10 | −$0.08 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.959 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.17at 0.959Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
- +$2.06at 0.957Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?
- +$1.85at 0.963Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?
- +$1.43at 0.972Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.35at 0.975Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 12:54 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.9409999879 | $20.37 |