0xe6ff494181e4ca7e57344a15e05cca56724ed78c
0xe6ff494181e4ca7e57344a15e05cca56724ed78c
- Realised P&L
- $-7.12
- Volume
- $274.13
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $4.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.650 | $1.91 | +$0.91 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.955 | $1.40 | +$0.40 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.605 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
- +$6.27at 0.247Walmart (WMT) Q2 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 3%-4.5%?
- +$2.59at 0.442Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?
- +$2.03at 0.502Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$2.03at 0.502Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 09:22 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 11:51 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 03:51 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7739998731 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 19:49 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 11:49 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 03:48 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $172.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 19:48 | Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 11:48 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 23:24 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 15:22 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 17:29 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399996448 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 21:27 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 07:00 | Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 22:59 | Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 02:48 | Will Trump say "Ballroom" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.71 | $1.29 |