Naughtyfrog
0xe6e5663376d228881528604f0331fe4ea9c3ba97
- Realised P&L
- $-194.50
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $23.75
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.046 | $23.49 | −$26.51 |
| Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? · No | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.80 |
| Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? · No | 0.041 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.14 |
| Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? · No | 0.631 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.94 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.371 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.59 |
| Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.27at 0.330Hyperliquid all time high by December 31?
- +$0.00at 0.860Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
- +$-0.21at 0.039Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?
- +$-0.22at 0.180Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
- +$-2.91at 0.680Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-09 23:04 | Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? | BUY | 0.025 | $3.00 |
| 06-08 19:06 | Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | BUY | 0.0979089585 | $50.00 |
| 06-04 08:13 | Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.66 | $95.97 |
| 06-02 13:53 | Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6799999942 | $98.88 |
| 01-05 19:27 | Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? | BUY | 0.1399999691 | $3.80 |
| 01-05 19:26 | Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale? | SELL | 0.036975039 | $3.79 |
| 01-05 18:54 | Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? | BUY | 0.6315483828 | $5.94 |
| 01-05 18:52 | Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale? | BUY | 0.0389999908 | $4.00 |
| 10-31 14:27 | Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? | SELL | 0.4209704791 | $23.81 |
| 10-30 12:40 | Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | SELL | 0.86 | $1.08 |
| 10-30 12:39 | Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | BUY | 0.8599999211 | $1.09 |
| 10-30 12:38 | Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | SELL | 0.15 | $1.08 |
| 10-30 12:22 | Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | BUY | 0.179999892 | $1.30 |
| 10-30 12:22 | Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? | SELL | 0.65 | $1.30 |
| 10-29 18:59 | Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | BUY | 0.0410000015 | $1.14 |