0xe6D645528BF868deb316658cA965ef0B5551cDB3-1771254291269
0xe6d645528bf868deb316658ca965ef0b5551cdb3
- Realised P&L
- $-82.20
- Volume
- $8.3k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $857.37
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration43.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.839 | 0.925 | $551.41 | +$51.41 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · No | 0.727 | 0.725 | $184.35 | −$0.52 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.168 | 0.175 | $83.09 | +$3.09 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.137 | 0.061 | $13.48 | −$16.52 |
| Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.021 | $10.49 | −$19.51 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.017 | $8.31 | −$1.69 |
| Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.011 | $6.23 | −$3.77 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.71at 0.746Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
- +$54.05at 0.370US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$15.04at 0.769Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$9.13at 0.913Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- +$7.35at 0.938Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 07:06 | Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.0184606864 | $10.00 |
| 09-18 07:06 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.71 | $50.91 |
| 09-18 07:04 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.1684886169 | $80.00 |
| 09-18 07:04 | Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.1368440311 | $30.00 |
| 09-18 07:03 | Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.0600513782 | $30.00 |
| 09-18 07:02 | Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.020447807 | $10.00 |
| 09-18 06:56 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.8999999928 | $100.00 |
| 09-18 06:55 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.953 | $111.01 |
| 09-18 06:55 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.3 | $150.09 |
| 09-15 13:48 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.7399999991 | $137.00 |
| 09-15 13:47 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.9603872592 | $99.20 |
| 09-11 13:12 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1799999999 | $100.00 |
| 09-11 13:11 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $104.36 |
| 08-07 13:32 | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.709999998 | $100.00 |
| 08-07 13:30 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6299999943 | $100.00 |