MegaSingularity
0xe6d023315e2f6d9c415fef35fb47ad01e9c02e08
- Realised P&L
- $265.14
- Volume
- $27.5k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.852 | 0.960 | $1.2k | +$132.30 |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? · Yes | 0.207 | 0.115 | $131.26 | −$105.60 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.040 | $15.80 | −$80.20 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$57.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$314.99at 0.370Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?
- +$73.24at 0.130Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?
- +$7.15at 0.880US confirms Havana Syndrome–causing device by March 31?
- +$2.21at 0.844Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
- +$-0.50at 0.870Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-27 16:32 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.8499999992 | $1000.00 |
| 01-30 01:57 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.017 | $170.00 |
| 01-30 01:57 | Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $210.00 |
| 01-29 14:10 | Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $2.07 |
| 01-29 13:55 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | SELL | 0.006 | $6.00 |
| 01-29 08:59 | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | SELL | 0.2032406 | $203.24 |
| 01-28 11:24 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.018 | $34.13 |
| 01-28 11:18 | Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? | BUY | 0.37 | $29.90 |
| 01-28 11:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | BUY | 0.019 | $3.34 |
| 01-28 11:02 | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | BUY | 0.13 | $130.00 |
| 01-20 17:37 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $31.92 |
| 01-19 14:41 | US confirms Havana Syndrome–causing device by March 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $48.63 |
| 01-07 04:58 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999983 | $57.28 |
| 01-07 04:39 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $43.00 |
| 12-10 09:05 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.844 | $11.94 |