Thatboi
0xe685918233714b9971eebe039ed7edade1ceeb9d
- Realised P&L
- $-25.8k
- Volume
- $790.9k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $6.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.571 | 0.410 | $4.5k | −$1.8k |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.097 | $2.1k | +$878.62 |
| Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 · Yes | 0.157 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$579.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.8kat 0.888Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?
- +$6.0kat 0.871Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
- +$4.8kat 0.978Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$1.9kat 0.937Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?
- +$1.2kat 0.953Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 14:21 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.3k |
| 05-29 16:34 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $565.55 |
| 05-29 16:32 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6298011988 | $633.60 |
| 05-29 16:31 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.629961404 | $2.1k |
| 05-29 16:28 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.331 | $3.4k |
| 03-01 13:20 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.41 | $38.75 |
| 03-01 13:19 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.41 | $410.00 |
| 02-09 15:34 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0555706556 | $502.34 |
| 10-27 13:06 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.953 | $24.8k |
| 10-23 12:36 | Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | BUY | 0.16 | $400.00 |
| 06-20 16:54 | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SELL | 0.9518215724 | $22.2k |
| 06-20 01:41 | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BUY | 0.951 | $675.63 |
| 06-20 01:31 | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BUY | 0.9584847058 | $3.0k |
| 06-20 00:14 | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BUY | 0.946 | $472.00 |
| 06-19 23:08 | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BUY | 0.9558960514 | $5.0k |