0xe655ff3e56138c1ea9de4159f9d75e9bca8925c9
0xe655ff3e56138c1ea9de4159f9d75e9bca8925c9
- Realised P&L
- $1.54
- Volume
- $117.83
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $4.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? · No | 0.340 | 0.795 | $2.34 | +$1.34 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? · No | 0.460 | 0.315 | $0.68 | −$0.32 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.265 | $0.68 | −$0.32 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 20? · No | 0.360 | 0.205 | $0.57 | −$0.43 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.081 | $0.17 | −$0.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.97at 0.258SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1?
- +$2.40at 0.300Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?
- +$1.48at 0.410Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of October 5 2026?
- +$1.30at 0.440Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $502.50 Week of September 14 2026?
- +$1.30at 0.442Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 19:23 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 11:21 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 20? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 00:59 | Will Ally (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 15:59 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 04:21 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 08:18 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $207 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 00:02 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 15:11 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 07:10 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 14? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 23:05 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.6099997255 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:37 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:37 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:02 | Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:42 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 07:56 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |