0xe64024BEB9a733c3519524E24C5831D392121291-1771574603272
0xe64024beb9a733c3519524e24c5831d392121291
- Realised P&L
- $-619.30
- Volume
- $64.1k
- Markets traded
- 212
- Open portfolio
- $199.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded212
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.036 | $113.49 | −$11.29 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.011 | $85.90 | −$229.08 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.00 |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes | 0.117 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET · Down | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? · Yes | 0.507 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.62at 0.360Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
- +$18.88at 0.180Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
- +$15.71at 0.508Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
- +$11.83at 0.258Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
- +$10.68at 0.440Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 17:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |
| 07-10 17:37 | Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by December 31? | SELL | 0.1644537815 | $1.37 |
| 07-10 14:23 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0423147882 | $50.00 |
| 07-10 14:23 | Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0822682162 | $54.30 |
| 07-09 21:00 | Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.041482327 | $4.80 |
| 07-09 20:54 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.1174999004 | $1.00 |
| 07-09 20:52 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? | SELL | 0.0966666667 | $5.80 |
| 07-08 22:18 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0460482292 | $10.00 |
| 07-08 22:17 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0435511292 | $200.00 |
| 07-06 17:42 | Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.108 | $0.98 |
| 07-06 16:37 | Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0579999821 | $2.98 |
| 07-06 16:12 | Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999845 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 16:10 | Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0262134268 | $14.00 |
| 07-06 16:09 | Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 07-06 16:08 | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.2299999603 | $4.00 |