naiveapee
0xe62c63afacccd84d08c01bdae2484cb43d8497e1
- Realised P&L
- $4.1k
- Volume
- $117.6k
- Markets traded
- 198
- Open portfolio
- $0.00
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded198
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-22? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$156.78 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? · Yes | 0.286 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.00 |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.537 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$79.00 |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.481 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? · Yes | 0.578 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$503.62 |
| Spread: England (-1.5) · England | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Sunderland AFC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score · Yes | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Endrick: 1+ goals · Yes | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-23? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.00 |
| Chris Wood: 1+ goals · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.7kat 0.427Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score
- +$2.4kat 0.582Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-06?
- +$2.4kat 0.567Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score
- +$1.6kat 0.589Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?
- +$1.2kat 0.585Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 19:25 | Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-09-17? | SELL | 0.999 | $103.42 |
| 09-17 19:07 | Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5) | BUY | 0.25 | $25.00 |
| 09-17 19:02 | Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.4699999944 | $15.00 |
| 09-17 19:01 | Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.4599999971 | $35.00 |
| 09-17 17:01 | Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.6499999998 | $155.00 |
| 09-17 16:52 | Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.4899999984 | $15.00 |
| 09-17 16:51 | Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.4799999978 | $35.00 |
| 09-16 21:01 | Spread: FC Barcelona (-3.5) | BUY | 0.7099999975 | $55.00 |
| 09-16 20:35 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-16? | BUY | 0.3623064723 | $50.00 |
| 09-16 19:02 | Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-16? | BUY | 0.4699999944 | $25.00 |
| 09-16 19:01 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-16? | BUY | 0.5399999918 | $25.00 |
| 09-15 18:47 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-15? | BUY | 0.4699999986 | $155.00 |
| 09-14 20:36 | Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-14? | BUY | 0.299999994 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 18:48 | Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-09-14? | BUY | 0.6 | $15.00 |
| 09-14 18:46 | Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-09-14? | BUY | 0.6 | $15.00 |