rubilnikdavai
0xe62117f63d9a8a904df139435a9d0f681a7219ff
- Realised P&L
- $12.18
- Volume
- $2.6k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $196.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.944 | $55.77 | +$0.80 |
| Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? · No | 0.967 | 0.946 | $47.61 | −$1.08 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-03 House seat? · Yes | 0.981 | 0.994 | $47.32 | +$0.62 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? · No | 0.983 | 0.951 | $36.80 | −$1.26 |
| StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? · No | 0.973 | 0.984 | $9.41 | +$0.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.71at 0.941Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
- +$2.63at 0.950Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference?
- +$0.95at 0.959Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- +$0.94at 0.981Will Carleigh Beriont be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?
- +$0.75at 0.946Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 13:22 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $20.29 |