TumTumTree
0xe5ee625d0e68c12148fbd374c0d24ea995770aba
- Realised P&L
- $-9.8k
- Volume
- $1.65M
- Markets traded
- 108
- Open portfolio
- $219.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded108
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.019 | $136.50 | −$633.50 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.055 | $82.50 | −$157.50 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$594.55 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$230.00 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? · Yes | 0.365 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.4kat 0.333Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
- +$8.7kat 0.446Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?
- +$5.3kat 0.666Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$5.0kat 0.627Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday?
- +$5.0kat 0.627Yoon arrested by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-04 12:21 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? | BUY | 0.42 | $195.22 |
| 04-27 22:48 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | BUY | 0.15 | $30.00 |
| 04-14 17:33 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? | BUY | 0.34 | $401.77 |
| 04-14 11:14 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? | BUY | 0.3 | $24.00 |
| 04-14 08:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | SELL | 0.13 | $491.06 |
| 04-13 15:15 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL | 0.06 | $457.63 |
| 04-13 15:13 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? | SELL | 0.12 | $5.45 |
| 04-13 05:49 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | SELL | 0.003 | $8.79 |
| 04-11 21:30 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.3 | $576.00 |
| 04-11 21:29 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | SELL | 0.92 | $552.00 |
| 04-10 13:22 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.006 | $2.28 |
| 04-10 06:34 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.3 | $300.00 |
| 04-08 14:49 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | BUY | 0.15 | $156.87 |
| 04-08 01:22 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | SELL | 0.11 | $189.64 |
| 04-08 01:20 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | SELL | 0.12 | $233.04 |