0xe5c72aca344ab2cef1489c0af8c6db1f48b76ff2
- Realised P&L
- $23.7k
- Volume
- $424.6k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $275.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.295 | $275.29 | −$172.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.4kat 0.301Lighter Airdrop on December 30?
- +$4.1kat 0.704Lighter Airdrop on December 29?
- +$1.2kat 0.910Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
- +$1.2kat 0.139Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$650.21at 0.612Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-04 14:55 | Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0701798526 | $457.69 |
| 04-14 06:34 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | BUY | 0.0206385031 | $105.88 |
| 04-10 06:48 | Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.5213599734 | $486.52 |
| 04-10 06:48 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL | 0.46 | $797.36 |
| 04-08 16:24 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.7282127289 | $417.63 |
| 04-08 16:21 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.007 | $200.00 |
| 04-08 15:12 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.005 | $50.00 |
| 04-08 15:10 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.6839763996 | $200.00 |
| 03-27 15:47 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL | 0.0367232307 | $408.03 |
| 02-16 15:11 | Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.48 | $895.85 |
| 12-30 03:52 | Lighter Airdrop on December 29? | BUY | 0.97 | $2.5k |
| 12-29 04:44 | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | SELL | 0.11615077 | $1.2k |
| 12-29 04:43 | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $634.09 |
| 12-29 04:42 | Lighter Airdrop on December 29? | BUY | 0.6493688398 | $8.2k |
| 12-27 09:15 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $77.98 |