Kastellvalen
0xe5c271b727270f001c77104b019a03f86f0c6b76
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $160.0k
- Markets traded
- 6,410
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded6,410
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration11.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$474.01at 0.091Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 31?
- +$370.44at 0.022Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$334.53at 0.290Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- +$89.68at 0.072Will A'ja Wilson have the highest blocks per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?
- +$68.59at 0.163Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 22:54 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.66 | $11.22 |
| 09-17 22:54 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.93 | $15.81 |
| 09-17 16:48 | Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on September 17? | BUY | 0.96 | $4.80 |
| 09-17 13:59 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 09-17 13:58 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.88 | $17.60 |
| 09-17 13:58 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.8046258636 | $16.20 |
| 09-17 13:58 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.6723373215 | $13.60 |
| 09-17 12:26 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 17? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.75 |
| 09-17 11:43 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 17? | BUY | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 09-17 11:23 | Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland? | SELL | 0.12 | $16.80 |
| 09-17 09:11 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.95 | $7.60 |
| 09-17 09:11 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.95 | $13.49 |
| 09-17 09:11 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.6470716381 | $9.90 |
| 09-17 09:11 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.95 | $13.49 |
| 09-17 08:03 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.54 | $2.70 |