LaRRaNed
0xe5c08bb40f751c97db14f2b03016ad3896cf4601
- Realised P&L
- $145.34
- Volume
- $40.5k
- Markets traded
- 88
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded88
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 4? · Yes | 0.995 | 1.000 | $1.3k | +$5.97 |
| Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 4? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.998 | $1.79 | +$0.19 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET · Down | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.99 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? · No | 0.970 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$245.49at 0.891Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 29?
- +$25.02at 0.976Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 15?
- +$16.48at 0.993Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 2?
- +$15.03at 0.990Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 16?
- +$12.06at 0.995Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 13:29 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.8899999722 | $1.60 |
| 08-04 07:32 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.9975232559 | $880.00 |
| 08-04 07:31 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.9981182288 | $1.2k |
| 08-04 06:32 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.9899999934 | $120.00 |
| 08-04 06:32 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.9882198663 | $370.00 |
| 08-02 10:26 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.9986760791 | $1000.00 |
| 08-02 08:05 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 2? | BUY | 0.9899999994 | $1.5k |
| 07-31 07:53 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.9989437289 | $1000.00 |
| 07-31 07:47 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.9988178402 | $560.00 |
| 07-31 07:16 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 31? | BUY | 0.9899999967 | $150.00 |
| 07-29 07:18 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 29? | BUY | 0.9961835429 | $690.00 |
| 07-28 07:39 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.9k |
| 07-28 06:05 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 28? | BUY | 0.9924894465 | $600.00 |
| 07-27 07:06 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 27? | BUY | 0.9979999999 | $740.00 |
| 07-26 07:06 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 26? | BUY | 0.99 | $240.00 |