alwaysfade
0xe5b70fd855af9258d9463992e4f1ed7987905ee3
- Realised P&L
- $-27.6k
- Volume
- $7.27M
- Markets traded
- 169
- Open portfolio
- $14.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded169
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? · No | 0.878 | 0.873 | $11.8k | −$78.70 |
| Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.018 | $1.3k | +$145.43 |
| Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.009 | $950.37 | +$50.02 |
| Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.005 | $23.36 | +$2.12 |
| Spread: Spurs (-5.5) · Spurs | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$258.94 |
| Spread: Knicks (-20.5) · Knicks | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.60 |
| Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline · Spurs | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.6k |
| Spread: Spurs (-16.5) · Spurs | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$77.71 |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 · Under | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.2k |
| Spread: Knicks (-13.5) · Knicks | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.40 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.2k |
| Magic vs. Pistons · Magic | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.0k |
| Spread: Spurs (-25.5) · Spurs | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.59 |
| Spread: Knicks (-6.5) · Knicks | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.94 |
| Spread: Spurs (-1.5) · Spurs | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.6k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$278.3kat 0.454Spurs vs. Knicks
- +$224.1kat 0.331Knicks vs. Spurs
- +$195.1kat 0.350Knicks vs. Spurs
- +$58.0kat 0.420Spread: Spurs (-4.5)
- +$57.5kat 0.440Pistons vs. Magic
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-25 08:36 | Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.2k |
| 07-25 08:32 | Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.009 | $877.99 |
| 07-24 18:47 | Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.879 | $5.5k |
| 07-24 18:47 | Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.878 | $2.9k |
| 07-24 18:45 | Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.877 | $1.8k |
| 07-19 22:01 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.9824999988 | $500.00 |
| 07-19 22:01 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.9799999931 | $100.00 |
| 07-19 22:01 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.9774999998 | $100.00 |
| 07-19 21:54 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.925 | $189.34 |
| 07-19 21:53 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.9237821616 | $4.9k |
| 07-19 21:52 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.92 | $9.2k |
| 07-19 20:15 | Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina? | BUY | 0.14 | $14.00 |
| 07-18 23:51 | Will LeBron James attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final? | BUY | 0.6972226365 | $500.00 |
| 07-18 23:47 | Will Timothée Chalamet attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final? | BUY | 0.93 | $186.00 |
| 07-18 23:34 | Will Timothée Chalamet attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final? | BUY | 0.9 | $90.00 |