0xe5b4a77296bab37056e72acc10dce5babf0ba85a
0xe5b4a77296bab37056e72acc10dce5babf0ba85a
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $58.3k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $131.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)21.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.044 | $59.56 | −$40.44 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? · Yes | 0.101 | 0.040 | $43.01 | −$66.99 |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.017 | $9.44 | −$40.55 |
| U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.026 | $6.84 | −$43.16 |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.033 | $4.06 | −$20.94 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? · Yes | 0.149 | 0.018 | $3.61 | −$26.39 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.007 | $2.68 | −$47.32 |
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.003 | $2.36 | −$47.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$860.86at 0.216Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$747.33at 0.034Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$354.55at 0.220US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$154.30at 0.178Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
- +$127.93at 0.580Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-06 23:11 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.011 | $17.10 |
| 05-02 18:39 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1649999979 | $62.58 |
| 04-12 20:52 | Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $64.37 |
| 04-02 12:24 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.053999998 | $24.87 |
| 04-02 12:22 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.016 | $24.87 |
| 04-01 04:03 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL | 0.037 | $12.42 |
| 03-30 11:34 | Crude Oil all time high by March 31? | SELL | 0.006 | $11.87 |
| 03-29 00:23 | Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? | BUY | 0.4289026732 | $74.62 |
| 03-29 00:15 | Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4789410349 | $49.75 |
| 03-29 00:11 | Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.074924681 | $24.87 |
| 03-28 01:11 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.242 | $47.82 |
| 03-27 02:30 | Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.1408712313 | $129.85 |
| 03-23 04:58 | US strike on Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $25.00 |
| 03-23 04:54 | Crude Oil all time high by March 31? | BUY | 0.0439092858 | $25.00 |
| 03-23 03:41 | Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1828343658 | $30.00 |