luisesca
0xe5ae19c2bc2304c3a6c1715a4861c8ba6a92c174
- Realised P&L
- $-7.98
- Volume
- $133.95
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $10.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on September 29? · Yes | 0.985 | 0.952 | $4.83 | −$0.17 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.625 | $2.84 | −$0.16 |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.725 | $1.99 | −$0.01 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 29? · Up | 0.910 | 0.915 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? · No | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.161 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance · Senegal | 0.786 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance · Cabo Verde | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.97at 0.720Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?
- +$1.82at 0.816Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
- +$1.81at 0.174Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
- +$1.11at 0.477Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score
- +$0.48at 0.677England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 12:33 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on September 29? | BUY | 0.9099992538 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 12:32 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on September 29? | BUY | 0.9850149724 | $5.00 |
| 09-29 12:27 | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 09-24 05:05 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.659999934 | $3.00 |
| 09-02 17:43 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.7099998694 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 23:25 | Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 21:40 | Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.9749998245 | $5.00 |
| 07-01 18:55 | Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 16:22 | England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 07-01 03:42 | Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.9930784199 | $5.00 |
| 06-30 03:05 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.49 | $2.88 |
| 06-30 02:38 | Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 06-29 23:24 | Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.02 | $0.06 |
| 06-29 22:45 | Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.93 | $3.00 |
| 06-29 19:06 | Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.4699998778 | $1.00 |