Arthur8198
0xe56e43233391dfe5aae77f6b41befc1f1bd1411c
- Realised P&L
- $4.31
- Volume
- $12.0k
- Markets traded
- 433
- Open portfolio
- $50.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded433
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on September 18? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $34.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on September 18? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $16.61 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.09at 0.749Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
- +$9.78at 0.750Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 18?
- +$9.48at 0.749Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C or higher on April 18?
- +$9.33at 0.749Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on April 19?
- +$9.30at 0.750Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on April 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 01:17 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.60 |
| 09-17 12:39 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.9989999716 | $34.00 |
| 09-13 04:47 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 13? | BUY | 0.9989999556 | $22.00 |
| 09-11 20:07 | Will Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.999 | $18.09 |
| 09-11 20:04 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 38°C or higher on September 12? | SELL | 0.999 | $31.40 |
| 09-11 02:01 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 38°C or higher on September 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $31.40 |
| 09-10 19:27 | Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #1 song this week? | BUY | 0.998 | $22.30 |
| 09-07 17:09 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.70 |
| 09-06 21:31 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on September 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.80 |
| 09-06 08:57 | Will Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.10 |
| 09-05 23:25 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 6? | BUY | 0.998999933 | $10.30 |
| 09-05 10:08 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 5? | BUY | 0.9989999942 | $29.80 |
| 09-05 06:19 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on September 5? | BUY | 0.9989999385 | $16.00 |
| 09-04 21:46 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on September 5? | BUY | 0.9989998742 | $7.10 |
| 09-04 19:05 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on September 5? | BUY | 0.9987217124 | $23.40 |