gengui
0xe55017e61cd13b6bf7e596bc0bba0fb3036def79
- Realised P&L
- $2.0k
- Volume
- $95.5k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $4.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? · No | 0.688 | 0.680 | $2.2k | −$27.63 |
| Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.770 | $1.9k | +$561.97 |
| Will the Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? · No | 0.500 | 0.640 | $559.65 | +$122.42 |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? · No | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.2kat 0.142Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?
- +$1.1kat 0.795Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
- +$431.39at 0.508Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
- +$343.98at 0.225Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?
- +$219.06at 0.154Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 17:32 | Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.6754966881 | $300.00 |
| 10-14 08:55 | Will the Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? | SELL | 0.1107954077 | $64.47 |
| 10-13 08:54 | Will the Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.8 | $43.00 |
| 10-13 07:36 | Will the Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? | SELL | 0.1719323707 | $185.28 |
| 09-28 11:24 | Will the Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? | SELL | 0.15 | $6.90 |
| 09-28 08:47 | Will the Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? | SELL | 0.65 | $6.50 |
| 09-09 10:50 | Will the Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? | SELL | 0.2690327106 | $42.19 |
| 09-09 07:44 | Will the Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? | SELL | 0.7528309702 | $94.51 |
| 07-14 13:27 | Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.9094761323 | $1.1k |
| 06-19 08:06 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | SELL | 0.1996265015 | $379.90 |
| 06-19 07:56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | SELL | 0.2023062507 | $400.71 |
| 06-18 20:46 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.75 |
| 06-18 06:43 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | BUY | 0.78452341 | $100.00 |
| 06-18 06:32 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | BUY | 0.798653182 | $3.0k |
| 06-18 04:47 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | SELL | 0.5213371595 | $672.19 |