SEGA
0xe516316fe7367e2e11989f364381bc094d211d81
- Realised P&L
- $-37.97
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 246
- Open portfolio
- $44.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded246
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.371 | 0.265 | $14.29 | −$5.71 |
| Will Abstract launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.310 | $7.09 | −$12.11 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.685 | $6.85 | +$1.85 |
| Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.485 | $5.05 | +$0.05 |
| Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.780 | $4.88 | −$0.13 |
| Cambria FDV above $30M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.595 | $4.13 | −$0.87 |
| Will Abstract launch a token by September 30, 2026 · No | 0.930 | 0.990 | $2.13 | +$0.13 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.045 | $0.20 | −$0.80 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? · No | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.40 |
| Dodgers vs. Phillies · Phillies | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.20 |
| Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.70 |
| Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-25? · No | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.54at 0.520Florida vs. Houston
- +$14.77at 0.520Team from East wins March Madness?
- +$10.58at 0.360Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
- +$10.00at 0.500Trail Blazers vs. Nets
- +$7.86at 0.560UEFA Nations League: Spain vs. France (To Advance)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 20:52 | Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.315581854 | $10.00 |
| 09-05 20:35 | Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4499999797 | $10.00 |
| 09-05 14:54 | Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4799999808 | $5.00 |
| 09-05 14:54 | Cambria FDV above $30M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7199999654 | $5.00 |
| 09-05 14:54 | Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8 | $5.00 |
| 09-05 14:46 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.068 | $0.45 |
| 09-04 15:57 | Over $7.5M committed to the Ethos public sale? | BUY | 0.6599999604 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 12:33 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 12:33 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 08-24 20:56 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.138 | $2.00 |
| 08-24 20:52 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.1389999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-24 09:36 | Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | SELL | 0.053 | $1.13 |
| 08-24 09:35 | Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open? | SELL | 0.072 | $1.31 |
| 08-24 09:35 | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? | SELL | 0.197 | $2.71 |
| 08-19 13:06 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.1479998905 | $1.00 |