VorVZakone
0xe4c99e75306e0e1421b4712a21e8f90c47cd6ef7
- Realised P&L
- $-1.51M
- Volume
- $8.22M
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $18.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-18.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.025 | $9.4k | −$875.83 |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.015 | $3.9k | −$2.9k |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.341 | 0.325 | $3.1k | −$146.89 |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.321 | 0.335 | $1.0k | +$40.60 |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.009 | $994.84 | −$667.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$163.1kat 0.601Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$67.6kat 0.626Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?
- +$49.5kat 0.231Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$44.0kat 0.3062024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House
- +$32.2kat 0.564Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-29 20:01 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.0k |
| 06-29 19:58 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.023 | $1.4k |
| 06-03 17:32 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0331777712 | $135.93 |
| 06-03 17:31 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3880003999 | $194.04 |
| 06-03 17:30 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $557.89 |
| 06-03 17:29 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0301279542 | $234.73 |
| 06-03 17:29 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.031 | $110.60 |
| 05-27 01:57 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.027 | $447.00 |
| 05-27 01:56 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.026 | $47.75 |
| 05-27 01:56 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.026 | $144.01 |
| 05-27 01:53 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3285519555 | $537.74 |
| 05-27 01:53 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3165538969 | $426.02 |
| 05-27 01:51 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $1.45 |
| 05-27 01:51 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.298215496 | $334.39 |
| 05-27 01:50 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2968143476 | $1.1k |