0xe49a30e5f30ad8f4531d5b60b9ccdfbba306f271
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $1.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.001 | $1.01 | −$8.99 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: April · Something | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? · Yes | 0.649 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during NYC rally? · No | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? · No | 0.394 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? · No | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July? · Yes | 0.211 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$54.94at 0.154Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$8.42at 0.372Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" during NYC rally?
- +$0.47at 0.530Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
- +$-0.02at 0.959Human moon landing in 2026?
- +$-0.48at 0.143Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 11:33 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.34 |
| 09-17 11:33 | Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.023 | $0.55 |
| 09-17 11:32 | Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.21 |
| 09-17 11:32 | Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $1.85 |
| 09-17 11:32 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31? | SELL | 0.0129600384 | $1.08 |
| 09-17 11:32 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | SELL | 0.1862852113 | $2.12 |
| 09-17 11:31 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.59 | $5.56 |
| 09-17 11:31 | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | SELL | 0.141 | $10.21 |
| 07-23 14:54 | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.1380670501 | $10.00 |
| 07-23 14:39 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July? | BUY | 0.2109999708 | $5.00 |
| 07-23 14:33 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31? | BUY | 0.1199999899 | $10.00 |
| 04-15 15:47 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 04-14 17:05 | Human moon landing in 2026? | SELL | 0.956 | $4.98 |
| 04-13 19:03 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 14? | BUY | 0.0091851543 | $2.70 |
| 04-13 19:02 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 14? | BUY | 0.0041200789 | $4.50 |