lgtnb15
0xe494ea3e8511852e5b990fbccb0e2f9a5f758a98
- Realised P&L
- $-3.1k
- Volume
- $14.8k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $162.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-21.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.125 | $162.50 | −$32.50 |
| Silver (SI) Up or Down on January 26? · Down | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on February 5? · Up | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.500Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?
- +$0.11at 0.650Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
- +$0.10at 0.999Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 31?
- +$0.00at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12?
- +$0.00at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-04 02:56 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | SELL | 0.69 | $1.86 |
| 01-26 03:16 | Silver (SI) Up or Down on January 26? | BUY | 0.12 | $36.00 |
| 12-31 11:23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $100.00 |