0xe453628d66CA5Fe521Ef7A676c2A4CB9dF8830b7-1730616843545
0xe453628d66ca5fe521ef7a676c2a4cb9df8830b7
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $15.82
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-56.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? · Yes | 0.877 | 0.996 | $15.82 | +$1.88 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 19? · Yes | 0.576 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.85 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 18? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.80at 0.575Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$8.02at 0.198Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 17?
- +$0.09at 0.994Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 16?
- +$0.01at 0.8502024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House
- +$-1.21at 0.061Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 16:42 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 19? | BUY | 0.42 | $1.99 |
| 07-17 10:56 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 17? | BUY | 0.3429825765 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 10:36 | Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? | BUY | 0.8799999296 | $10.00 |
| 07-16 19:24 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 17? | BUY | 0.06 | $0.30 |
| 07-16 19:22 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 17? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.90 |
| 07-16 19:17 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 16? | BUY | 0.994 | $9.94 |
| 12-18 02:43 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.11 |
| 11-04 12:22 | 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.8499936249 | $0.08 |
| 11-04 06:47 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.5749999954 | $37.30 |