0xe448F67878ec6d3F4d5e1193DedFdbD36F1Fe738-1760851902130
0xe448f67878ec6d3f4d5e1193dedfdbd36f1fe738
- Realised P&L
- $172.98
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $146.24
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.802 | 0.810 | $101.03 | +$1.03 |
| Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $150M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.685 | $45.21 | +$1.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$190.76at 0.480Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-20?
- +$44.93at 0.690Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?
- +$39.60at 0.604Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-17?
- +$23.40at 0.888Will Almanak FDV above $140M one day after launch?
- +$6.95at 0.590Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 14:30 | Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $150M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.66 | $33.00 |
| 09-29 14:29 | Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8017646086 | $100.00 |
| 01-10 11:40 | Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? | BUY | 0.689999999 | $100.00 |
| 12-20 18:47 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-20? | SELL | 0.8615212 | $430.76 |
| 12-20 18:19 | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.27 | $11.90 |
| 12-17 19:00 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-17? | BUY | 0.6 | $24.00 |
| 12-17 18:37 | Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 12-17 18:36 | Will Brentford FC win on 2025-12-17? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.80 |
| 12-17 18:24 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-17? | BUY | 0.61 | $30.50 |
| 12-11 12:14 | Will Almanak FDV above $140M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |
| 12-11 12:10 | Will Almanak FDV above $140M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.8345585777 | $54.92 |
| 12-09 13:11 | Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-13? | BUY | 0.0469999975 | $17.00 |
| 12-07 09:08 | Will Almanak FDV above $140M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 12-07 09:02 | Will Almanak FDV above $140M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.46 | $9.20 |
| 12-07 08:44 | Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | BUY | 0.5899999947 | $10.00 |