mentionsone
0xe3f6d69744495a2fd67c751ee3b97b33eeb45078
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $93.7k
- Markets traded
- 350
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded350
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.500 | 0.835 | $949.66 | +$380.66 |
| Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? · No | 0.994 | 0.996 | $298.80 | +$0.50 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.952 | 0.972 | $194.29 | +$3.90 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.973 | 0.958 | $191.50 | −$3.10 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.166 | $188.34 | −$380.66 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No | 0.940 | 0.966 | $96.55 | +$2.55 |
| Iran invades Kuwait by October 31? · No | 0.992 | 0.986 | $93.62 | −$0.62 |
| Will BNB reach $1,200 in October? · No | 0.970 | 0.999 | $36.10 | +$1.03 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in October? · No | 0.954 | 0.993 | $29.79 | +$1.17 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? · No | 0.970 | 0.944 | $28.32 | −$0.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.211Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 23?
- +$109.88at 0.338Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 23?
- +$109.44at 0.620Rockets vs. Warriors
- +$99.00at 0.550Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1?
- +$25.58at 0.980Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 06:26 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.973 | $194.60 |
| 10-04 06:05 | Iran invades Kuwait by October 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $94.24 |
| 10-04 05:42 | Will BNB reach $1,200 in October? | BUY | 0.97 | $35.07 |
| 10-04 05:41 | Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? | BUY | 0.995 | $99.50 |
| 10-04 05:41 | Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? | BUY | 0.994 | $8.29 |
| 10-04 05:37 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in October? | BUY | 0.954 | $28.62 |
| 10-02 07:44 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | BUY | 0.97 | $29.10 |
| 09-26 03:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $575.27 |
| 09-18 01:34 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.966 | $96.60 |
| 09-16 03:16 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $94.00 |
| 09-16 03:12 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in September? | BUY | 0.989 | $49.45 |
| 09-16 03:09 | Will XRP reach $3.00 in September? | BUY | 0.986 | $98.60 |
| 09-16 03:08 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in September? | BUY | 0.988 | $49.40 |
| 09-06 12:24 | Will Solana reach $200 in September? | BUY | 0.989 | $89.91 |
| 09-03 07:27 | Trump out as President by September 30? | BUY | 0.987 | $197.40 |