stpocin
0xe3b26753e3d262ebb34cd799d2a736b691d57d94
- Realised P&L
- $1.4k
- Volume
- $364.0k
- Markets traded
- 253
- Open portfolio
- $4.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded253
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? · No | 0.484 | 0.959 | $3.4k | +$1.7k |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.727 | 0.865 | $406.58 | +$64.91 |
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.930 | 0.969 | $116.11 | +$4.62 |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.499 | 0.037 | $95.68 | −$1.2k |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? · No | 0.229 | 0.125 | $58.76 | −$48.66 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.046 | $46.53 | −$448.73 |
| Anthropic acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.030 | $3.66 | −$4.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.5kat 0.002US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
- +$7.3kat 0.117Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.646Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.007Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
- +$924.25at 0.017Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 22:33 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.017 | $0.31 |
| 06-30 22:33 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.976 | $18.01 |
| 06-30 20:45 | Will Google (GOOGL) close at $335-$340 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 29 – Jul 3? | BUY | 0.96 | $14.40 |
| 06-30 20:45 | Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 29 above $340? | BUY | 0.03 | $0.45 |
| 06-30 15:50 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $51.94 |
| 06-30 15:50 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $0.42 |
| 06-30 15:49 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $1.60 |
| 06-30 15:49 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $198.00 |
| 06-30 15:36 | Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 29 above $330? | BUY | 0.029 | $0.34 |
| 06-30 15:36 | Will Google (GOOGL) close at $325-$330 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 29 – Jul 3? | BUY | 0.969 | $11.34 |
| 06-30 01:16 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.956 | $27.34 |
| 06-30 01:16 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.039 | $1.12 |
| 06-30 01:15 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.956 | $35.75 |
| 06-30 01:15 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.033 | $1.23 |
| 06-29 11:18 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.017 | $0.68 |