Listerineman
0xe38d669a69b2cdf5aed30263d7f01074a6756c36
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $130.5k
- Markets traded
- 233
- Open portfolio
- $381.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded233
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.470 | 0.595 | $207.94 | +$43.68 |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? · Yes | 0.243 | 0.065 | $173.55 | −$474.93 |
| Will Evan Bouchard win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? · Yes | 0.156 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$124.23 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? · No | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$112.00 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$52.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$484.99at 0.254Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?
- +$324.69at 0.509Trump inauguration gets more viewers than Biden's?
- +$290.65at 0.462Will the New Democratic Party win the Nunavut seat in the next Canadian Election?
- +$240.97at 0.778U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?
- +$223.42at 0.470Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-11 12:33 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.99 |
| 06-04 03:52 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.254 | $27.94 |
| 06-04 03:52 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.2095438 | $20.95 |
| 05-21 23:51 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 05-21 00:49 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? | BUY | 0.56 | $4.47 |
| 05-21 00:46 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $7.75 |
| 05-15 02:00 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.486 | $53.46 |
| 04-17 18:22 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $102.73 |
| 04-17 18:21 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.4203333333 | $126.10 |
| 04-16 22:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.27 | $81.00 |
| 04-15 17:13 | Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $399.20 |
| 04-12 01:05 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | BUY | 0.982 | $491.00 |
| 04-12 01:04 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.72 | $216.00 |
| 04-08 04:19 | Oilers vs. Utah | BUY | 0.3699999674 | $5.00 |
| 04-08 04:04 | Oilers vs. Utah | BUY | 0.4699999934 | $30.00 |