deranged
0xe36746e0df2302f4a3c371f0e3afa0bfb0bc7e04
- Realised P&L
- $-587.47
- Volume
- $6.38M
- Markets traded
- 1,242
- Open portfolio
- $30.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,242
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration11.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.005 | $17.72 | −$7.06 |
| Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.056 | $12.54 | +$1.86 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.1kat 0.763Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 26?
- +$13.4kat 0.750Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 24?
- +$12.8kat 0.750Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 14?
- +$12.8kat 0.750Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 14?
- +$12.6kat 0.750Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-17 19:56 | Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.0386686747 | $6.42 |
| 07-03 20:16 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on July 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $69.93 |
| 06-05 11:13 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.032 | $2.33 |
| 06-04 00:08 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.007 | $1.02 |
| 05-28 09:53 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? | SELL | 0.991 | $0.10 |
| 05-26 22:20 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.4k |
| 05-26 22:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? | BUY | 0.999 | $999.07 |
| 05-26 22:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.7k |
| 05-26 21:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? | BUY | 0.999 | $999.07 |
| 05-26 19:04 | Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.3k |
| 05-26 19:03 | Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 26? | BUY | 0.998 | $857.78 |
| 05-26 18:11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.9k |
| 05-26 18:10 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $719.88 |
| 05-26 17:59 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $675.36 |
| 05-26 17:35 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.57 |