third1
0xe35f6fefedda54dfa5e4ca1d86855b1ab37eaf3a
- Realised P&L
- $117.46
- Volume
- $94.9k
- Markets traded
- 1,842
- Open portfolio
- $15.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,842
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration32.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$367.81at 0.391Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
- +$298.66at 0.123Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
- +$231.21at 0.613Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
- +$205.05at 0.596Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
- +$192.52at 0.540Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 10:10 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.48 | $3.84 |
| 09-20 10:10 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or higher on September 20? | BUY | 0.1340170917 | $1.12 |
| 09-20 09:54 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on September 20? | BUY | 0.38 | $1.90 |
| 09-20 09:54 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on September 20? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.25 |
| 09-20 09:41 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 09:41 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.20 |
| 09-20 09:41 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 09-20 09:39 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.27 | $1.35 |
| 09-20 09:39 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 09-20 09:39 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 09:39 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.2299999879 | $1.14 |
| 09-20 05:20 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.24 | $1.97 |
| 09-20 05:19 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.6865646259 | $4.04 |
| 09-20 05:19 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.92 | $6.13 |
| 09-20 04:20 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.9399999887 | $5.00 |