Contradict
0xe32b46a28b649031939a78ee47fca260758a626e
- Realised P&L
- $-9.8k
- Volume
- $171.6k
- Markets traded
- 124
- Open portfolio
- $925.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded124
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)97.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.202Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?
- +$1.8kat 0.210Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
- +$1.5kat 0.266Will Rossella Fini win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election?
- +$1.4kat 0.329Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?
- +$1.4kat 0.340Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 03:14 | Will Åsa Johansson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Värmland? | BUY | 0.14 | $350.00 |
| 09-07 03:11 | Will Kim Ahern be the Rhode Island Attorney General Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.1627301229 | $190.49 |
| 09-06 04:09 | Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September? | BUY | 0.3113676772 | $68.30 |
| 09-06 04:08 | Will My Alnebratt be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västra Götaland? | BUY | 0.1975629094 | $372.77 |
| 09-05 05:35 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election? | BUY | 0.222234015 | $51.51 |
| 09-05 05:34 | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.146147427 | $147.11 |
| 09-02 13:29 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.45 | $469.80 |
| 09-02 13:28 | Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten? | BUY | 0.14 | $469.98 |
| 09-02 13:27 | Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | BUY | 0.1783019796 | $72.51 |
| 09-02 13:27 | Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | BUY | 0.2218089859 | $60.08 |
| 09-01 01:15 | Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | BUY | 0.2831904085 | $195.10 |
| 08-22 01:00 | Will Ahsanul Hafiz win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election? | BUY | 0.3789193246 | $315.53 |
| 08-22 00:59 | Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23? | BUY | 0.3307378529 | $137.43 |
| 08-22 00:57 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.32 | $481.92 |
| 08-21 01:12 | Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31? | BUY | 0.1896026595 | $143.15 |