kalugazalupa
0xe2e0c0c086c3fe0d3ca42ef31a83c0976ee3c05a
- Realised P&L
- $-2.81
- Volume
- $15.5k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $1.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dorothy McCabe win the 2026 Waterloo mayoral election? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.375 | $1.01 | −$0.99 |
| Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Angels vs. Yankees · Yankees | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.03at 0.036Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24?
- +$9.06at 0.133Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?
- +$2.35at 0.630Canucks vs. Capitals
- +$1.96at 0.600Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes
- +$1.63at 0.860Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 19:25 | Will Dorothy McCabe win the 2026 Waterloo mayoral election? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 10-12 19:24 | Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.071 | $0.41 |
| 09-30 19:38 | Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 08-09 19:47 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998064 | $1.00 |
| 07-28 19:51 | Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | BUY | 0.345999936 | $2.00 |
| 06-30 19:45 | Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 05-04 19:44 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 04-30 20:04 | World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 04-15 19:26 | Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5299997376 | $2.00 |
| 03-10 18:37 | Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.7199997408 | $2.00 |
| 02-19 19:50 | Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.6899997205 | $2.00 |
| 01-20 19:11 | Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $1.00 |
| 01-20 19:10 | Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election? | BUY | 0.88 | $2.00 |
| 01-20 19:10 | Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election? | SELL | 0.86 | $2.18 |
| 12-30 16:42 | Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election? | BUY | 0.7899996998 | $2.00 |