lw-mm-lp
0xe2cecb6a6a0f73890e344924fc2278d66089aec5
- Realised P&L
- $-710.95
- Volume
- $59.1k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $28.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by September 30? · No | 0.415 | 0.465 | $13.79 | +$1.47 |
| Amazon matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? · Yes | 0.238 | 0.185 | $10.64 | −$3.08 |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.296 | 0.245 | $3.08 | −$0.64 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.377 | 0.480 | $1.44 | +$0.31 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 8? · Down | 0.365 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.61 |
| Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on September 8? · Yes | 0.412 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.73 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$528.57at 0.257S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 22?
- +$264.69at 0.220S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 6?
- +$225.09at 0.189S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 21?
- +$201.67at 0.570S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 8?
- +$138.13at 0.270S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 15:35 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on September 8? | SELL | 0.6282481029 | $19.04 |
| 09-08 15:34 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on September 8? | SELL | 0.28 | $0.89 |
| 09-07 03:11 | Will MrBeast's latest video get between 53 and 56 million views on day 2? | SELL | 0.25261 | $5.05 |
| 07-24 07:12 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24? | SELL | 0.3476113575 | $52.52 |
| 07-24 05:37 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24? | SELL | 0.57 | $7.50 |
| 07-24 05:26 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24? | SELL | 0.58 | $9.70 |
| 07-22 12:36 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 22? | SELL | 0.6918487706 | $37.42 |
| 07-22 11:41 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 22? | SELL | 0.27 | $33.39 |
| 07-22 07:06 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 22? | SELL | 0.28 | $25.16 |
| 07-22 04:16 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 22? | SELL | 0.49 | $24.50 |
| 07-21 08:44 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 21? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.29 |
| 07-21 03:49 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 21? | SELL | 0.22 | $10.85 |
| 07-20 07:05 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 20? | SELL | 0.4 | $0.78 |
| 07-10 09:22 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 10? | SELL | 0.5418942154 | $37.19 |
| 07-10 07:08 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 10? | SELL | 0.366400704 | $12.49 |