shuizhao
0xe2b54d476205e23a93388752da3d910430e000d3
- Realised P&L
- $-1.86
- Volume
- $8.6k
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $14.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No | 0.998 | 0.996 | $12.28 | −$0.02 |
| Harvard vs. Brown · Harvard | 0.820 | 0.825 | $2.48 | +$0.01 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · No | 0.051 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.60 |
| Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 17? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 10? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.56 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 8? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.00at 0.890Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 21-28?
- +$3.30at 0.967Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28?
- +$3.00at 0.970Will Elon tweet 425-449 times April 4 - 11?
- +$1.97at 0.670Magomedov vs. Pyfer
- +$1.50at 0.975Will Meta have the top AI model on March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 13:05 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.30 |
| 09-25 13:01 | Harvard vs. Brown | BUY | 0.82 | $2.46 |
| 08-01 06:36 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on August 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.80 |
| 06-07 12:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? | BUY | 0.9989999902 | $93.00 |
| 05-28 06:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? | BUY | 0.9989999902 | $93.00 |
| 05-22 12:42 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? | BUY | 0.9989999902 | $93.00 |
| 05-17 07:49 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 17? | BUY | 0.9989999902 | $93.00 |
| 05-12 08:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.00 |
| 05-07 09:06 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 7? | BUY | 0.9979999972 | $93.00 |
| 05-03 09:58 | Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.00 |
| 04-26 03:35 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 26? | BUY | 0.9989999902 | $92.99 |
| 04-22 12:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? | BUY | 0.998 | $91.97 |
| 04-17 12:27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? | BUY | 0.999 | $91.99 |
| 04-14 07:36 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $91.99 |
| 04-09 11:23 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $91.99 |