asdfasdav
0xe2a91c06ea3e0eb6cc2102ae84eaba059ac250cb
- Realised P&L
- $13.3k
- Volume
- $637.6k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $3.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration78.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.272 | 0.290 | $2.3k | +$140.02 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.042 | $420.00 | −$70.00 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.012 | $405.42 | −$95.98 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.32 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET · Up | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.78 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$503.32 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$255.92 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET · Up | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.6kat 0.063US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$2.3kat 0.159Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$816.92at 0.038Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
- +$2.25at 0.680Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
- +$0.80at 0.860Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 08:26 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.049 | $490.00 |
| 08-02 02:51 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.0117070834 | $124.02 |
| 08-02 02:51 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.01 | $20.74 |
| 08-02 02:51 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.009 | $32.74 |
| 07-30 03:27 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $2.0k |
| 07-27 23:07 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $2.9k |
| 07-26 01:47 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $2.2k |
| 07-26 01:45 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.0635048674 | $1.1k |
| 07-26 01:43 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.072 | $469.51 |
| 07-26 01:37 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.019 | $281.72 |
| 07-26 01:35 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.24 | $7.2k |
| 07-16 02:20 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.091 | $91.00 |
| 07-13 01:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $4.95 |
| 07-11 23:16 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.011996801 | $119.97 |
| 07-11 22:43 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.0448246747 | $437.40 |