PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

TommyFules

0xe2918b89f057b1950b22998e564ce06649af3b09

Realised P&L
$-279.65
Volume
$16.6k
Markets traded
30
Open portfolio
$361.02

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded30
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration34.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample17 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)76.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration39.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes0.0260.150$141.99+$116.95
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0070.020$120.29+$80.44
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0290.103$60.38+$43.38
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%? · Yes0.3610.712$38.37+$18.89
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1120.000$0.00−$30.00
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.3290.000$0.00−$16.00
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1290.000$0.00−$52.70
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.2010.000$0.00−$102.70
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0540.000$0.00−$16.00
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0870.000$0.00−$36.00
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0480.000$0.00−$15.00
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%? · Yes0.1400.000$0.00−$46.25
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0250.000$0.00−$19.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-10 16:32Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.005$17.85
08-10 16:32Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?SELL0.0649350819$19.39
08-10 16:30Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?BUY0.0265415668$25.04
08-10 16:29Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?SELL0.739$26.06
07-16 18:07Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.4169999957$47.70
07-16 18:06Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.583$49.61
07-08 15:14Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1879999926$16.00
07-08 15:13Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1589999936$17.00
06-29 14:50Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.025$19.00
06-29 11:28Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.2089999951$26.00
06-29 11:27Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.013$8.03
06-19 15:15Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.073$39.11
06-18 19:57Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1289999952$21.00
06-16 19:00Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?SELL0.64$22.07
06-11 20:23Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1059999938$14.70