Grinchulo
0xe23b24cc05b99b481fb853c6b648bbb4bc774f13
- Realised P&L
- $-2.9k
- Volume
- $29.3k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $22.41
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.024 | $22.41 | −$82.49 |
| Will no new pope be elected in 2025? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.91 |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$156.00 |
| Will George Simion win by 6–12%? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.40 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$307.40 |
| Will George Simion win by 0–6%? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$76.00 |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? · Yes | 0.822 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1000.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$139.85at 0.294Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$16.28at 0.260Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?
- +$14.00at 0.054Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
- +$8.00at 0.310Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March?
- +$5.28at 0.483Supreme Court blocks order forcing Trump to rehire federal workers?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-07 18:35 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999991 | $104.90 |
| 06-01 15:36 | Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | BUY | 0.822 | $1000.00 |
| 05-16 18:06 | Will George Simion win by 6–12%? | BUY | 0.12 | $8.40 |
| 05-04 21:29 | Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? | SELL | 0.004 | $2.47 |
| 05-04 20:21 | Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0404730235 | $25.00 |
| 05-02 12:31 | Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2899999981 | $90.92 |
| 05-02 12:29 | Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor minority? | SELL | 0.32 | $64.00 |
| 04-26 19:15 | Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2999999974 | $70.00 |
| 04-26 11:08 | Will no new pope be elected in 2025? | BUY | 0.0056996999 | $20.00 |
| 03-28 13:36 | Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? | SELL | 0.365 | $108.56 |
| 03-27 22:29 | Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin before May? | SELL | 0.0612333162 | $29.77 |
| 03-27 22:07 | Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? | BUY | 0.9199999999 | $273.63 |
| 03-27 21:49 | Joe Gatto charged with sex crime? | SELL | 0.088458 | $26.54 |
| 03-27 12:51 | Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025? | SELL | 0.24 | $0.16 |
| 03-27 12:50 | $jellyjelly FDV over $50m on Friday? | SELL | 0.01203292 | $6.02 |