cashllio
0xe221d23b7ee9bf426a3862b0a1c8608750e41505
- Realised P&L
- $487.98
- Volume
- $63.3k
- Markets traded
- 197
- Open portfolio
- $607.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded197
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.961 | 0.974 | $389.60 | +$5.20 |
| Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31? · No | 0.964 | 0.967 | $96.65 | +$0.25 |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? · No | 0.905 | 0.938 | $46.90 | +$1.65 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Syria in 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.935 | $30.57 | +$0.82 |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? · No | 0.974 | 0.980 | $29.39 | +$0.17 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? · No | 0.680 | 0.725 | $14.50 | +$0.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$232.00at 0.420Will Solana reach $240 September 29-October 5?
- +$46.80at 0.480Ethereum above $3,300 on January 17?
- +$21.18at 0.850Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$15.39at 0.933Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$8.67at 0.900Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 05:58 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? | BUY | 0.68 | $13.60 |
| 10-02 05:57 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | BUY | 0.974 | $29.22 |
| 09-27 10:21 | Will XRP reach $3.00 in September? | BUY | 0.995 | $147.26 |
| 09-27 10:10 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.964 | $192.80 |
| 09-27 10:09 | Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.964 | $96.40 |
| 09-27 09:24 | Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 6°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.9871530758 | $13.80 |
| 09-24 12:24 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.999 | $435.56 |
| 09-24 12:23 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.50 |
| 09-24 12:18 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.958 | $191.60 |
| 09-24 11:13 | Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $199.60 |
| 09-15 07:43 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.991 | $198.20 |
| 09-08 03:54 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.991 | $99.10 |
| 09-06 11:32 | Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in September 2026? | BUY | 0.9788333333 | $58.73 |
| 09-06 10:49 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September? | BUY | 0.983 | $103.32 |
| 08-25 13:18 | Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 26? | BUY | 0.9947138908 | $143.94 |