Mapie88
0xe21906bd38fb579dfd08d1f9df01a8cf257e2fdf
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $26.9k
- Markets traded
- 97
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded97
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.710 | 1.000 | $985.92 | +$285.92 |
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.430 | $159.25 | −$137.02 |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? · No | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$201.00 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? · Yes | 0.367 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$380.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$560.00at 0.440Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$217.08at 0.479Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
- +$181.10at 0.820No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?
- +$136.00at 0.830Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$97.06at 0.340Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 French Open Men's Singles?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 13:03 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7099999998 | $700.00 |
| 02-02 14:00 | Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8 | $296.27 |
| 01-15 12:13 | US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $34.10 |
| 01-14 13:01 | US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999966 | $65.00 |
| 01-14 13:01 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.32 | $50.41 |
| 01-08 22:46 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BUY | 0.2399999967 | $50.00 |
| 01-08 22:42 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999992 | $115.00 |
| 01-04 09:45 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $440.00 |
| 12-21 21:41 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.5599999993 | $100.00 |
| 12-21 21:41 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.7899999998 | $201.00 |
| 10-22 22:35 | Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.999 | $45.78 |
| 10-13 07:35 | Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.2399999852 | $11.00 |
| 10-13 07:35 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | BUY | 0.589999998 | $45.00 |
| 09-24 08:37 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.83 | $664.00 |
| 08-19 21:43 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.3669235899 | $300.00 |