Onlywinner
0xe212ca5f390503aae57f15cbca1cd0c41fc1e0ad
- Realised P&L
- $-101.40
- Volume
- $23.2k
- Markets traded
- 241
- Open portfolio
- $2.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded241
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.40at 0.116XRP Up or Down - February 9, 4PM ET
- +$18.99at 0.252Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
- +$16.89at 0.320Solana Up or Down - February 9, 11AM ET
- +$16.18at 0.370Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 11AM ET
- +$14.69at 0.346Solana Up or Down - February 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 13:47 | Ethereum Up or Down on October 18? | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $4.00 |
| 10-18 13:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $2.00 |
| 10-18 13:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.88 | $2.00 |
| 10-18 13:41 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 110 and 120 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.0081451552 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 13:40 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 60 million views on day 1? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 06-20 20:26 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999227 | $1.72 |
| 06-20 20:26 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.023 | $0.92 |
| 06-20 20:24 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $1.00 |
| 06-20 20:20 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get less than 8 million views on day 1? | BUY | 0.0479999779 | $2.00 |
| 06-20 19:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET | BUY | 0.48 | $3.00 |
| 06-20 17:23 | Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 06-20 17:22 | Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.0149999854 | $1.00 |
| 06-20 16:58 | Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 06-20 15:53 | Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 06-20 15:46 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 57.5 million views in week 1? | BUY | 0.009375 | $1.50 |