danceunderwater
0xe20cf3bd0007a756c694bdf827edb78b9e3013c5
- Realised P&L
- $-192.36
- Volume
- $5.8k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $11.56
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.003 | $11.56 | −$10.43 |
| Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.391 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$146.83 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? · Yes | 0.494 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.31at 0.480Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
- +$12.81at 0.647Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?
- +$7.31at 0.274Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
- +$4.36at 0.698Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
- +$3.51at 0.830Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-31 10:33 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | SELL | 0.972 | $24.00 |
| 05-25 20:02 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | BUY | 0.8299999992 | $20.50 |
| 05-25 19:37 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | BUY | 0.4938822802 | $100.00 |
| 05-25 19:01 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | SELL | 0.3 | $83.60 |
| 05-25 18:58 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | SELL | 0.991 | $36.96 |
| 05-10 14:18 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999798 | $9.39 |
| 05-10 14:18 | Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0061199905 | $19.00 |
| 05-10 14:15 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.387 | $17.12 |
| 05-10 14:12 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999962 | $40.00 |
| 05-10 14:11 | Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $3.00 |
| 05-10 14:11 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.387 | $51.35 |
| 05-10 14:08 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $5.62 |
| 05-10 13:59 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999968 | $35.49 |
| 05-10 13:34 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.3994841206 | $61.95 |
| 05-07 13:42 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | BUY | 0.6233684118 | $18.80 |