0x2B8BC235508961556B83a2881b6c22eB4Eae4A80-1768354627423
0xe1ea378f88b6b0d3f21148ff9c33279411a7b750
- Realised P&L
- $27.59
- Volume
- $488.04
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $88.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? · No | 0.775 | 0.905 | $17.52 | +$2.52 |
| Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.979 | $15.46 | +$0.46 |
| US announces military base in Israel in 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.775 | $15.31 | −$0.69 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.515 | $14.31 | +$4.31 |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? · No | 0.628 | 0.715 | $13.66 | +$1.66 |
| Israel election: will Likud lose seats? · Yes | 0.766 | 0.935 | $12.21 | +$2.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.34at 0.590Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
- +$6.90at 0.670Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$5.25at 0.200Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
- +$2.67at 0.420 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
- +$2.65at 0.850Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 17:39 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.359999987 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 17:36 | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.7747215521 | $15.00 |
| 07-14 17:36 | US announces military base in Israel in 2026? | BUY | 0.809999998 | $16.00 |
| 06-18 12:43 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999966 | $14.00 |
| 06-12 18:39 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | SELL | 0.58 | $9.66 |
| 06-08 10:23 | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY | 0.5899999813 | $12.00 |
| 06-01 11:46 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.05 |
| 05-31 16:46 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.419999982 | $7.00 |
| 05-31 16:43 | Israel election: will Likud lose seats? | BUY | 0.7659252356 | $10.00 |
| 05-23 19:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.1278174037 | $7.00 |
| 05-23 19:04 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | SELL | 0.18 | $4.96 |
| 05-23 15:49 | Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL | 0.24 | $6.00 |
| 05-23 10:55 | Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL | 0.37 | $9.25 |
| 05-22 09:20 | Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 05-20 18:48 | Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? | BUY | 0.6282672649 | $12.00 |