alienbid
0xe1a8e339fd424851eff353b690aaa7897c49a3d7
- Realised P&L
- $-667.37
- Volume
- $176.9k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $4.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration37.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.203 | 0.029 | $4.7k | −$28.5k |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET · Up | 0.844 | 1.000 | $118.51 | +$18.51 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET · Up | 0.426 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET · Up | 0.517 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET · Up | 0.733 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$102.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET · Up | 0.671 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$253.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$84.37at 0.520Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
- +$41.19at 0.708Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET
- +$26.29at 0.737Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
- +$25.05at 0.226Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
- +$23.76at 0.457Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-04 20:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET | BUY | 0.2815533079 | $1.96 |
| 03-04 20:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET | BUY | 0.75 | $98.24 |
| 03-03 04:39 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $100.00 |
| 03-03 04:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET | BUY | 0.6707752081 | $150.12 |
| 03-03 04:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET | BUY | 0.6498940091 | $97.41 |
| 03-03 04:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET | BUY | 0.839999999 | $99.10 |
| 03-03 04:31 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:31 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:29 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:29 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $100.00 |