alienbid
0xe1a8e339fd424851eff353b690aaa7897c49a3d7
- Realised P&L
- $-27.5k
- Volume
- $176.8k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $6.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-15.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration40.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.203 | 0.038 | $6.3k | −$26.8k |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET · Up | 0.677 | 1.000 | $118.51 | +$38.30 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET · Up | 0.484 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.35 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET · Up | 0.529 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.79 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET · Up | 0.625 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$87.02 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET · Up | 0.597 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$225.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$164.20at 0.532Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
- +$107.25at 0.614Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET
- +$73.54at 0.627Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
- +$41.88at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
- +$22.22at 0.900Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-04 20:37 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET | BUY | 0.2815533079 | $1.96 |
| 03-04 20:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET | BUY | 0.75 | $98.24 |
| 03-03 04:39 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $100.00 |
| 03-03 04:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET | BUY | 0.6707752081 | $150.12 |
| 03-03 04:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET | BUY | 0.6498940091 | $97.41 |
| 03-03 04:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET | BUY | 0.839999999 | $99.10 |
| 03-03 04:31 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:31 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:29 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $200.00 |
| 03-03 04:29 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $100.00 |