ArielFilipino
0xe18ecc345e00ee7c4f2d1f676f3dd2acb112f826
- Realised P&L
- $20.4k
- Volume
- $87.8k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $23.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar23.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Penn State (-2.5) · Penn State | 0.530 | 0.525 | $10.5k | −$100.00 |
| Spread: Indiana (-24.5) · Indiana | 0.480 | 0.465 | $9.3k | −$300.00 |
| Spread: Arizona (-7.5) · Arizona | 0.460 | 0.465 | $3.0k | +$31.78 |
| Spread: Louisiana (-6.5) · Arkansas State | 0.480 | 0.485 | $947.35 | +$9.77 |
| Spread: Nebraska (-14.5) · Maryland | 0.490 | 0.495 | $94.10 | +$0.95 |
| Oregon State vs. Colorado State: O/U 61.5 · Under | 0.490 | 0.495 | $15.64 | +$0.16 |
| Spread: BYU (-6.5) · TCU | 0.480 | 0.495 | $12.56 | +$0.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.4kat 0.490Spread: Eagles (-3.5)