jumpthechasm
0xe1699105ba93cb737bf60a2e88117a4ac9e3d7af
- Realised P&L
- $-133.34
- Volume
- $14.6k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $48.85
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stripe IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.047 | $19.74 | −$39.06 |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.045 | $17.55 | −$130.65 |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.049 | $11.56 | −$87.51 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$274.91 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$228.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$341.45at 0.388Anthropic IPO before 2027?
- +$157.47at 0.283Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$43.84at 0.750SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
- +$27.87at 0.280GTA 6 launch postponed again?
- +$25.18at 0.665Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 16:42 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.8766072723 | $411.29 |
| 04-05 21:23 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.6489547976 | $150.89 |
| 03-25 16:44 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.27 | $7.09 |
| 03-24 04:39 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.08 | $48.00 |
| 03-15 23:14 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3 | $180.00 |
| 03-08 05:18 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | SELL | 0.3078742362 | $307.86 |
| 03-03 05:17 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.05 | $50.00 |
| 02-22 01:04 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.304 | $7.29 |
| 02-17 02:31 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.58 |
| 02-17 02:23 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | BUY | 0.28 | $14.96 |
| 02-05 15:53 | SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.84 | $336.00 |
| 01-23 23:33 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | SELL | 0.74 | $63.43 |
| 01-23 23:32 | Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | SELL | 0.7 | $23.33 |
| 01-23 01:11 | SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.75 | $22.50 |
| 01-23 00:25 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | SELL | 0.987 | $180.67 |