trancephorm
0xe155015fab94cc022f9a18f17ea7f4fbf1b7fdd4
- Realised P&L
- $-4.83
- Volume
- $352.42
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $21.60
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.248 | 0.233 | $9.30 | −$0.62 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on September 28? · Yes | 0.188 | 0.180 | $4.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.270 | 0.235 | $4.70 | −$0.70 |
| Will Rayssa Furlan win the most votes in the 2026 Amapá Senate election? · No | 0.160 | 0.150 | $2.81 | −$0.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.71at 0.484Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?
- +$3.40at 0.649Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
- +$2.46at 0.787Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- +$2.42at 0.700Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?
- +$2.28at 0.642Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 12:51 | Will Rayssa Furlan win the most votes in the 2026 Amapá Senate election? | BUY | 0.16 | $3.00 |
| 09-28 05:20 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on September 28? | BUY | 0.1881188074 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 06:46 | Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.34 | $7.66 |
| 09-16 19:37 | Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.32 | $7.21 |
| 09-16 19:34 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999824 | $7.00 |
| 09-09 20:32 | Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.3299999815 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 08:31 | Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000? | BUY | 0.25 | $11.30 |
| 09-08 05:41 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-09-10? | BUY | 0.2899999884 | $5.00 |
| 09-04 21:50 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | BUY | 0.64 | $6.39 |
| 09-04 13:24 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.6299999764 | $4.00 |
| 09-04 12:22 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.7799999307 | $9.00 |
| 09-04 07:33 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5899999705 | $5.00 |
| 09-03 22:35 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999841 | $9.92 |
| 09-03 22:33 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.4739999725 | $8.00 |